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Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable
Dated: April 23 2020
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Earlier this week, we discussed how most projections from financial institutions are calling for a quick V-shaped recovery from this economic downturn, and there’s research on previous post-pandemic recoveries to support that expectation.
In addition, we noted how there are some in the business community who believe we may instead be headed for a U-shaped recovery, where the return to previous levels of economic success won’t occur until the middle of next year. Yesterday, Reuters released a poll of U.S. and European economists which revealed that most surveyed are now leaning more toward a U-shaped recovery.
Here are the results of that poll:
Why the disparity in thinking among different groups of economic experts?
The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.
Today, analysts must incorporate data from three different sciences into their recovery equation:
1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?
2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?
3. Social Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).
The challenge of accurately combining the three sciences into a single projection has created uncertainty, and it has led to a wide range of opinions on the timing of the recovery.
Bottom Line
Right now, the vast majority of economists and analysts believe a full recovery will take anywhere from 6-18 months. No one truly knows the exact timetable, but it will be coming.
Kathleen Comerford
I am the Team Owner of The Comerford Group and the Broker | Owner of Icon Premium Realty. I have been passionate about real estate my whole life starting with the condo projects I developed for ....
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All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumers personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing.
Updated on August 19, 2022 10:14 AM UTC
MIAMI ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested
The data relating to real estate for sale/lease on this web site come in part from a cooperative data exchange program of the multiple listing service (MLS) in which this real estate firm (Broker) participates. The data is provided exclusively for the user's personal non-commercial use, and may not be used for any purpose other than to indentify properties that the user may be interested in purchasing or leasing. The properties displayed may not be all of the properties in the MLS's database, or
