4 Reasons Why the Election Won’t Dampen the Housing Market

Dated: November 2 2020

Views: 7

4 Reasons Why the Election Won’t Dampen the Housing Market | MyKCM

Tomorrow, Americans will decide our President for the next four years. That decision will have a major impact on many aspects of life in this country, but the residential real estate market will not be one of them.

Analysts will try to measure the impact feasible changes in regulations might have on housing, the effect of a possible first-time buyer program, and any number of other situations based on who wins. The housing market, however, will remain strong for four reasons:

1. Demand Is Strong among Millennials

The nation’s largest generation began entering the housing market last year as they reached the age to marry and have children – two key drivers of homeownership. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported:

“Millennials, long viewed as perennial home renters who were reluctant or unable to buy, are now emerging as a driving force in the U.S. housing market’s recent recovery.”

2. Mortgage Rates Are Historically Low

All-time low interest rates are also driving demand across all generations. Strong demand created by this rate drop has countered other economic disruptions (e.g., pandemic, recession, record unemployment).

In addition, Freddie Mac just forecasted mortgage rates to remain low through next year:

“One of the main drivers of the strong housing recovery is historically low mortgage interest rates…Given weakness in the broader economy, the Federal Reserve’s signal that its policy rate will remain low until inflation picks up, and no signs of inflation, we forecast mortgage rates to remain flat over the next year. From the third quarter of 2020 through the end of 2021, we forecast mortgage rates to remain unchanged at 3%.”

3. Prices Continue to Appreciate

The continued lack of supply of existing homes for sale coupled with the surge in buyer demand has experts forecasting strong price appreciation over the next twelve months.

4. History Says So

Though it’s true that the market slows slightly in November when it’s a Presidential election year, the pace returns quickly. Here’s an explanation as to why from the Homebuilding Industry Report by BTIG:

“This may indicate that potential homebuyers may become more cautious in the face of national election uncertainty. This caution is temporary, and ultimately results in deferred sales, as the economy, jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence all have far more meaningful roles in the home purchase decision than a Presidential election result in the months that follow.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for Meyers Research, also notes:

“History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November. In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle. This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year as long as the economy stays on track.”

Bottom Line

There’s no doubt this is one of the most contentious presidential elections in our nation’s history. The outcome will have a major impact on many sectors of the economy. However, as Matthew Speakman, an economist at Zillowexplained last week:

“While the path of the overall economy is likely to be most directly dictated by coronavirus-related and political developments in the coming months, recent trends suggest that the housing market – which has basically withstood every pandemic-related challenge to this point – will continue its strong momentum in the months to come.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
Blog author image

Kathleen Comerford

Let The Comerford Group Be Your Key to Your Real Estate Success! I am a Broker and REALTOR, connecting buyers and sellers around the world. The Comerford Group is able to provide customers with excep....

Latest Blog Posts

How to Set Up the Perfect Home Office

For some, it’s a dream to work from home. But once you finally get your remote job, you might be surprised to learn that kicking back on the couch isn’t going to get the job done. Having

Read More

Sarasota Named One of the Best Places to Live in the U.S.

The U.S. News and World Report's annual "Top 10 Best Places to Live in the U.S." report has ranked Sarasota No. 9 in their 2021-2022 edition. The list ranks metro areas taking into account

Read More

Older Homes, New Trend: Tips for Improving Comfort and Energy Efficiency

Older homes tend to require upgrades that houses constructed after standards for energy efficiency came into widespread use do not. Buying an older house may mean living in a property with history

Read More

7 Best Tips for Homeowners in Florida During the Summer Months

The summer months in Florida can be grueling and especially hard on our homes.  Homeowners in Florida can avoid any added stress and unforeseen repairs with regular  maintenance checks.

Read More